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Plato @ Investment

~ Trying to make money out of all kinds of market condition

Plato @ Investment

Daily Archives: June 18, 2012

何時見底之三:曾氏通道

18 Monday Jun 2012

Posted by Platoooooo in June 2012

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曾氏通道, 曾淵滄

曾淵滄是一個跟其他財演有點不同的「講股佬」。他主要是分析宏觀,但他知道香港的讀者無冧把不行,所以亦不吝嗇將自己喜愛的股票間唔中拿出來講一下。

有一次問朋友借了他的一本著作,都忘記了叫什麼名字了。當中他很仔細介紹了他自創的「曾氏通道」,去分析大市的長線走勢。既然曾教授不吝嗇自己的創作公諸同好,我也老實不客氣跟著他的數式複製了在自己的 excel 中!

簡單來說,「曾氏通道」根據一個指數過往十幾廿年的走勢,理用 natural log 繪製了一個走勢,再根據它的高低點、波幅等加入了幾條跟走勢線平衡的線。

現在恆指在「曾氏通道」中的下半部份,只要走到16000就已經到達最悲觀那條線。所以假使恆指真的調整到16000,那很有機會認真貼近底部可以認真掃貨。

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