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Plato @ Investment

~ Trying to make money out of all kinds of market condition

Plato @ Investment

Monthly Archives: March 2012

This is not why I left Rabbit

16 Friday Mar 2012

Posted by Platoooooo in March 2012

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Why I am leaving Goldman Sachs

昨日讀了 Greg Smith “Why I am leaving Goldman Sachs” (http://wp.me/p1Pacp-cK) 的朋友,你會不會質疑我的誠信 too?!

所有做生意的人都應該明白 Mr Smith 所講 ” If clients don’t trust you they will eventually stop doing business with you. It doesn’t matter how smart you are.” 的道理。我跟我的 teammate 都明白這硬道理。我不能擔保我們當年賣的 product 全部都幫客人賺了錢,但我可以保證我們整個團隊都是憑良心去賣這些 product 的!

衍生工具的用途主要有二:對沖和刀仔鋸大樹。對沖的產品我們少賣,因為 market need 不多,我夾硬推都不代表有人會買,反而從歐洲同事口中知道他們的客人對這類型的 product 有興趣得多了。香港人都是喜歡膽搏膽,一蚊搏三蚊多d。

我很慶幸一班 senior 的老闆們都是有品有 heart 的人,一同設計產品時,「謀取暴利」從來都不是我們的出發點;我們不會為 arb 爆 client 而高興,但我們會為想到一些買家值搏率高、回報高,而我們又可以 hedge 到我們的 risk 、賺到錢的 win-win product 而興奮。常常看到報紙話如果你買了 ibank 的產品就等於跟我們對賭,你輸錢時我們大賺。事實上,一個正正常常的 product,你贏錢時我們不應該輸;你輸錢時我們未必輸好多,但肯定不一定贏。你估銀行賣你 product 就好似係賭場做莊賭大細呀 — 你贏莊家輸,你輸莊家贏?這麼簡單的話,ibank 的人工花紅就應該跟澳門的荷官們睇齊;當年金融海嘯散戶們血流成河時,ibank 們就應該是賺到盤滿砵滿而不是執笠!!

“Why I Am Leaving Goldman Sachs”

15 Thursday Mar 2012

Posted by Platoooooo in March 2012

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Greg Smith, Why I am leaving Goldman Sachs

(下面 bold 了的字句是小弟的傑作,不是來自原文)

Why I Am Leaving Goldman Sachs

By GREG SMITH
Published: March 14, 2012

TODAY is my last day at Goldman Sachs. After almost 12 years at the firm — first as a summer intern while at Stanford, then in New York for 10 years, and now in London — I believe I have worked here long enough to understand the trajectory of its culture, its people and its identity. And I can honestly say that the environment now is as toxic and destructive as I have ever seen it.

To put the problem in the simplest terms, the interests of the client continue to be sidelined in the way the firm operates and thinks about making money. Goldman Sachs is one of the world’s largest and most important investment banks and it is too integral to global finance to continue to act this way. The firm has veered so far from the place I joined right out of college that I can no longer in good conscience say that I identify with what it stands for.

It might sound surprising to a skeptical public, but culture was always a vital part of Goldman Sachs’s success. It revolved around teamwork, integrity, a spirit of humility, and always doing right by our clients. The culture was the secret sauce that made this place great and allowed us to earn our clients’ trust for 143 years. It wasn’t just about making money; this alone will not sustain a firm for so long. It had something to do with pride and belief in the organization. I am sad to say that I look around today and see virtually no trace of the culture that made me love working for this firm for many years. I no longer have the pride, or the belief.

But this was not always the case. For more than a decade I recruited and mentored candidates through our grueling interview process. I was selected as one of 10 people (out of a firm of more than 30,000) to appear on our recruiting video, which is played on every college campus we visit around the world. In 2006 I managed the summer intern program in sales and trading in New York for the 80 college students who made the cut, out of the thousands who applied.

I knew it was time to leave when I realized I could no longer look students in the eye and tell them what a great place this was to work.

When the history books are written about Goldman Sachs, they may reflect that the current chief executive officer, Lloyd C. Blankfein, and the president, Gary D. Cohn, lost hold of the firm’s culture on their watch. I truly believe that this decline in the firm’s moral fiber represents the single most serious threat to its long-run survival.

Over the course of my career I have had the privilege of advising two of the largest hedge funds on the planet, five of the largest asset managers in the United States, and three of the most prominent sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East and Asia. My clients have a total asset base of more than a trillion dollars. I have always taken a lot of pride in advising my clients to do what I believe is right for them, even if it means less money for the firm. This view is becoming increasingly unpopular at Goldman Sachs. Another sign that it was time to leave.

How did we get here? The firm changed the way it thought about leadership. Leadership used to be about ideas, setting an example and doing the right thing. Today, if you make enough money for the firm (and are not currently an ax murderer) you will be promoted into a position of influence.

What are three quick ways to become a leader? a) Execute on the firm’s “axes,” which is Goldman-speak for persuading your clients to invest in the stocks or other products that we are trying to get rid of because they are not seen as having a lot of potential profit. b) “Hunt Elephants.” In English: get your clients — some of whom are sophisticated, and some of whom aren’t — to trade whatever will bring the biggest profit to Goldman. Call me old-fashioned, but I don’t like selling my clients a product that is wrong for them. c) Find yourself sitting in a seat where your job is to trade any illiquid, opaque product with a three-letter acronym.

Today, many of these leaders display a Goldman Sachs culture quotient of exactly zero percent. I attend derivatives sales meetings where not one single minute is spent asking questions about how we can help clients. It’s purely about how we can make the most possible money off of them. If you were an alien from Mars and sat in on one of these meetings, you would believe that a client’s success or progress was not part of the thought process at all.

It makes me ill how callously people talk about ripping their clients off. Over the last 12 months I have seen five different managing directors refer to their own clients as “muppets,” sometimes over internal e-mail. Even after the S.E.C., Fabulous Fab, Abacus, God’s work, Carl Levin, Vampire Squids? No humility? I mean, come on. Integrity? It is eroding. I don’t know of any illegal behavior, but will people push the envelope and pitch lucrative and complicated products to clients even if they are not the simplest investments or the ones most directly aligned with the client’s goals? Absolutely. Every day, in fact.

It astounds me how little senior management gets a basic truth: If clients don’t trust you they will eventually stop doing business with you. It doesn’t matter how smart you are.

These days, the most common question I get from junior analysts about derivatives is, “How much money did we make off the client?” It bothers me every time I hear it, because it is a clear reflection of what they are observing from their leaders about the way they should behave. Now project 10 years into the future: You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that the junior analyst sitting quietly in the corner of the room hearing about “muppets,” “ripping eyeballs out” and “getting paid” doesn’t exactly turn into a model citizen.

When I was a first-year analyst I didn’t know where the bathroom was, or how to tie my shoelaces. I was taught to be concerned with learning the ropes, finding out what a derivative was, understanding finance, getting to know our clients and what motivated them, learning how they defined success and what we could do to help them get there.

My proudest moments in life — getting a full scholarship to go from South Africa to Stanford University, being selected as a Rhodes Scholar national finalist, winning a bronze medal for table tennis at the Maccabiah Games in Israel, known as the Jewish Olympics — have all come through hard work, with no shortcuts. Goldman Sachs today has become too much about shortcuts and not enough about achievement. It just doesn’t feel right to me anymore.

I hope this can be a wake-up call to the board of directors. Make the client the focal point of your business again. Without clients you will not make money. In fact, you will not exist. Weed out the morally bankrupt people, no matter how much money they make for the firm. And get the culture right again, so people want to work here for the right reasons. People who care only about making money will not sustain this firm — or the trust of its clients — for very much longer.

(http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/14/opinion/why-i-am-leaving-goldman-sachs.html)

險

15 Thursday Mar 2012

Posted by Platoooooo in March 2012

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這幾天雖然大市日日升,但自己看得偏淡。一來、941 和 13 的雙天「藍燈籠」保至尊;二來、雖然希債搞掂,但歐元仍沉淪在 1.30xx 水平;三來、代表風險資產的黃金和澳元沒有跟隨股票上升。以對沖手上股票為目的,我在這星期初買了隻 21700 點打靶的熊仔。

誰不知昨晚美股大升 200 多點,我起身見到時心已經涼了半截。雖然買熊仔時早有全輸的準備,但望著我的小小熊就這樣被打靶了始終心有難過。

開市了…… 只升了 200 多點到 215xx,仲有價講!上午曾經上過 21638,距離我 21700 的打靶價只有 62 點!!但我見開市狀況比我想像中弱,又整天不在家,心想「算啦,隻熊仔由得佢聽天由命啦!」點知點知下午再看個市時升幅已經大大收窄,最後更倒跌收市!我立即看看我那隻大難不死的熊仔,嘩!收市價足足比最低位高出3倍!!難怪散戶們咁喜歡炒牛熊証啦!

今日到了阻力位大成交大陰燭單日轉向,似乎我這兩天不用再位為我的小小熊擔憂了!

濠賭一鋪

13 Tuesday Mar 2012

Posted by Platoooooo in March 2012

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0027.HK, 1928.HK, 金沙城中心, 金沙中國, 銀河娛樂, 濠賭股

今日濠賭股齊齊彈上,真是個每個月都要炒一劑的神話!究竟澳門這個比香港更彈元的地方,賭客數量還可以增加多少?或許,這就解釋了為什麼我再也見不到那些$100的賭枱了。

眾多賭股中,我的至愛是金沙中國 (1928.HK),它是唯一一間今年在澳門有新場開幕。今日的金沙就有如去年的銀河娛樂 (0027.HK),大家翻開銀河去年的股價圖就明白為何我咁有憧憬。還有,根據我一年最多兩次親身到澳門的觀察,次次都在威尼斯人見到一車又一車的大陸人入內送錢,金沙的收入又哪裡會少!

 

全城效應全城唱

12 Monday Mar 2012

Posted by Platoooooo in March 2012

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0941.HK, 藍燈籠, 中國移動

全城效應 全城唱 全城高溫作出呼應
一同迴響 人人也在和唱 感覺愈高興 高溫效應

全城效應,全城唱好941!

中移動 (0941.HK) 上星期三收市價還只是 $79.70,「砰砰砰」三聲星期五已經升到 $84.20,今再升差不多4%收 $87.45,前後足足升了9%有多!它一手貢獻了星期五跟今天恆指共130多點的升幅,若不是多得它恆指今天還應該只是剛剛在 21000 點樓下!

有人話 941 如此大升時是藍燈籠表現 — 大市短線升到差不多尾聲,但更多人立即唱好,目標看 $90 ,甚至 $100!我看得沒有這麼表面,941 大升不是問題,問題是星期五恆指的升勢只是靠 941,其他成份股全部牛皮偏淡。如果 941 大升之時全城齊升,大市個氣勢就當然是 GO GO GO~~~ 但星期五的狀況似是托住 941 沽貨多d。我就無大家咁興奮啦!

還有,941 今個星期四放榜,業績上它每個月公佈用戶數據,透明度超高無乜好炒,大家搏炒的是會否派超高息或者 CEO 先生會不會出口術唱好前景 (尤其是 4G)。前者可能性應該很低,後者有點一廂情願,況且CEO 先生一句值不值升完 4% 再升 4%?你諗你!

講股仔

09 Friday Mar 2012

Posted by Platoooooo in March 2012

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0302.HK, 0438.HK, 0585.HK, 0826.HK, 天工國際, 彩虹電子, 意馬國際, 永亨銀行

今日無乜 topic 想講,我終於明白到d財演除了要幫忙造勢推股票外,可能就是當個市悶悶地無甚好講時,就要介紹下股票湊夠字數交貨。

首先講返隻永亨 (0302.HK),我是真的星期三收市前買了,搏它宣佈派高息刺激股價,可惜夢想落空!幸好它的業績都幾靚仔,中午出業績後都有抽上,我少少地賺了$2,都好過無!

這個星期還見到3隻有睇頭的股票。頭兩隻天工 (0826.HK) 和彩虹電子 (0438.HK) 都是做了個大圓底並已破頂,成交亦相當配合,似有勢再上。其中天工更是做了海嘯後新高,應該已進入無阻力區!

第3隻意馬 (0585.HK) 就 risky d,擺明是莊家股,不過隻股仔已經跌到3底支持,值搏率都應該 ok。小小注、set 好止蝕、再有心理準備揸一段時間等莊家炒上,回報可以幾和味!

為什麼友邦不宜沾手?

08 Thursday Mar 2012

Posted by Platoooooo in March 2012

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1299.HK, AIA, AIG, 友邦保險

友邦不宜沾手

撰文:黎偉成 資深財經評論員
欄名:黎Sir點股

友邦保險(01299)的最終遭遇,居然由市場謠傳曾為其母公司的AIG擬增持,作地獄式的180度逆轉為配售減磅,此股起碼在一年半載之內不宜沾手,乃因股份不再由業務業績等基本因素左右股價,而是看AIG。

AIG此一前母公司,實在頗有爛泥之慨:

一、即使AIG如其他美國金融機構同於2008年9月金融海嘯和經濟衰退衝擊,瀕臨倒閉險境之際得美國政府買股收歸「國有」,唯是相當部分大型商業或投資銀行賺了錢便匆匆回購政府持股,AIG卻無能為力。

二、在友邦於香港招股上市之時,已要友邦把集資所得全數拱手交予當時仍為母公司作解困資金;事隔至今僅十幾個月的光景,AIG未因友邦的貢獻始可改善業績表現,反為要向美國財政部回購優先股,再「賣兒」,且只持略逾18%股權不再為控股股東,既然賺錢能力有限,把餘下的少數權益在「適當時機」沽之哉,假設絕不過分。估計AIG於半年後凍結期結束便會再找個高點再沽友邦,此亦為散戶持友邦高風險之所在。

三、AIG配售友邦涉資僅400多億元,但友邦於3月6日成交額高逾523億元,所多出之20億、30億元成交,顯大戶對此股乏信心。尤其是友邦以大裂口低開,今後要補此大裂口,費力甚大,破了位又可能面對AIG解凍狂插!香港還有不少股票選的!

(http://www.hket.com/eti/article/7bf49b5c-b7f3-4ddf-a154-b1286fcd1afa-387434)

這樣的評價,最近兩天已經見了很多篇。小弟認為這樣的解釋是極之愚昧,認真是害死隔離!

首先,買股票看業績。AIA 上年度的新業務價值增長達40%,各大投行已公認是一份好業績。當然,這已經是歷史,主宰股價的將會是未來的業績,但 AIA 的增長勢頭不似短期內會大幅倒退,所以業績這方面暫時看來是偏好的。

接著,我就跟你講來自 AIG 的沽售壓力。第一、禁售期是180天。去年3月有多少人估到10月時恆指會跌到落16000點?所以你今天跟我說因為有 AIG 180天後的沽售的壓力而不買 AIA 是烚戇的!如果我告訴你恒指今年10月時會升到32000點,你估 AIA 會不會升穿 $30 見$40?

第二、如果我是 AIG,我要賣 AIA 當然想善價而沽。你 AIA 跌落$20 我當然唔沽住!幫 AIG 沽貨的投行就要適當時幫手推高個價,讓親愛的客戶可以沽得高一點。所以當 AIG 準備要沽貨而消息未洩露之時,AIA 個股價應該會升高而不是跌低。

第三、你都識講未來180天 AIG 想沽都無得沽,即是秋天前 AIA 都無被大手沽出的壓力啦!就算股價「吧吧聲」升到$40,AIG 都只可以得個「望」字!咁樣咪反而更好炒!

所以,不要咁傻仔,d人「見高就拜 見低就踩」你就信到十足十。如果現在 AIA 股價是$29.80,我就梗係叫你唔好買啦!(係都等它正式升穿$30重要阻力先買!)但現在因為批股俾個靚價你入,你有興趣的話就請把握機會!如果你不看好 AIA 下年業績就另當別論。

我自己都準備就緒買番d,不過我睇個市要跌到 100天 WMA 20000點附近嘛,所以我不介意多等一會!

搏息其式

07 Wednesday Mar 2012

Posted by Platoooooo in March 2012

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0302.HK, 0398.HK, 特別股息, 東方表行, 永亨銀行

每一年的業績期,除了可以搏業績超乎預期之外,我有時亦會搏派特別股息的股票。通常派特別股息的原因是不外乎有特殊收益或者特別的週年慶典。根據以往經驗,這些喜出望外的股息亦可以為股價帶來驚喜!(對唔住我一時間諗唔起具體例子) 當然,買不買還要視乎當時股價是否已被炒上、股市走勢和派息以外本身業績會不會其實是很醜?

當你揀好了你的「好息」對象,就要擇日入市。純粹搏派息的話就應該盡遲入市 — 貼近公佈業績前才買入,減少受市場狀況影響。例如,你想買的股票這個星期四公佈業績 (及宣佈派息),如果你心急星期一就買定先,見到過去兩天的洗倉,你應該會是名正言順的「偷雞唔到食渣米」!所以最理想是星期四才買吧!還有,要留意是星期四中午還是收市後出業績,如果你心諗下午買但原來人家中午已出了業績,那就真是功虧一簣!

如果買中又搏中了,就可以視乎自己對隻股票的喜好和信心,決定派息前走人還是收埋息先走。個人認為如果不是想長揸的話,除淨前獲利會比較好,因為除淨後有很多「志同道合」的朋友會一起沽貨壓低個價,同埋除淨後要等一段時間才收到息。

最後,這幾隻是我覺得這一輪業績期有機會派 special div 的股票,買不買請自行定奪!還有,如果你知道其他的 potential candidates,請通知一聲!

1) 永亨銀行 (0302.HK) ,出業績日:3月8日
今年是永亨的75週年,「75」對中國人來說有一種 (我) 說不出的特別情感,公司亦已為這個週年慶典做足廣告。

2) 東方表行 (0398.HK),出業績日:待定,應該在6、7月
大家過去一年有沒有去看「東方表行50週年呈獻《張學友1/2世紀演唱會》」和「東方表行50週年呈獻《謝安琪你們的幸福演唱會2012》」? (我咁啱兩個都有睇!)

3) 新地 (0016.HK),出業績日:2月已出中期,9月出末期
出中期業績時已事先張揚有機會派特別股息慶祝上市40週年。

 

學炒期權

06 Tuesday Mar 2012

Posted by Platoooooo in March 2012

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炒買期權, e線金融網, 林子球

今次終於讓我符碌估中大市調整,但可惜又是一個「手術成功 病人死亡」的慘劇 — 我自己講完都未趕得切走貨!!Well… 如果只是牛市調整又不需要太擔心,暫時揸住d股票應該無事。

=====================================================

剛聽了上星期五的《e線金融網》,這集林子球先生講炒買期權的心得很實用,特別在此與大家分享。

http://programme.rthk.hk/channel/radio/programme.php?name=pth/ezone&d=2012-03-02&p=795&e=170742&m=episode

等跌的男人

05 Monday Mar 2012

Posted by Platoooooo in March 2012

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這個週末我嘗試放下股票市場的雜聲,想想究竟我們正在一個怎麼樣的市場?看著美國最近的經濟數據,已見明顯復甦跡象。縱使可能只會是「阿婆行路」— 中中地,毫無疑問股市最壞的情況已過。但大市今年2個月間狂奔了3000多點,你問我覺得3月應該升1500 點上 23000 還是跌 1500 點到 20000 點關口,我肯定會選擇後者。

所以我的看法是整體大市會向上,但心感 (和希望) 3月會調整,時間最早在內地全國人大會議之後。調整原因包括:

1) 事先張揚的 LTRO 2 已出爐,QE 3 又遙遙無期,短期內再無放水希望;
2) 恆指超買,14天 RSI 似頂背馳;
3) 美股亦見同樣現象,13000 的阻力似十分嚴峻;
4) 金價上週三無啦啦大跌 100 美元,雖然之後已見反彈,我卻認為「空穴來風 事必有因」,金作為炒味最濃的資產,這可能是股市短線調整的警號;
5) 上週五升幅最大的港股是聞名中港澳的「動L」霸王 (1338.HK),這是醜股中的極品!大家無嘢炒到連「動L」都殺,是否水尾?

如果大市如我所想真的在3月調整 (哈利路亞!),我看了2009年 QE1 時大升市的圖,每逢回落到100天線就見底反彈 (看下圖橙圈),現在100天線就在 20000 點不到。我將會在 20000 點高少少盡情入貨!

(PS:我用的是加權移動平均 WMA line,不是普通的移動平均 SMA line)

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