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Plato @ Investment

~ Trying to make money out of all kinds of market condition

Plato @ Investment

Author Archives: Platoooooo

千選萬選都是跌?

22 Thursday Mar 2012

Posted by Platoooooo in March 2012

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特首選戰, 老夫子選舉

星期日特首選戰過後,香港股市會如何反應?

如果老夫子當選的話…

低民望當選,社會中不滿情緒預期將會高漲,不利社會安穩。跌!

如果秦先生當選的話…

大家恐慌會再推「八萬五」政策,或者大孖沙們撤退香港,不利樓價和經濟。跌!

如果大番薯當選的話… (雖然 99.99% 肯定不會…)

中央大跌眼鏡之餘可能會勁嬲,減少 favor 香港的政策。無阿爺照顧,跌!

如果流選的話…

香港政界在5月再選之前陷入一遍混亂,市場氣氛將轉差。跌!

蘋果的神話

21 Wednesday Mar 2012

Posted by Platoooooo in March 2012

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AAPL, 金融雲端, 蘋果, 丘亦生

近來讀得多有關蘋果 (AAPL) 股價見頂報導,又見它這兩個月爆升得這麼快,都有點兒心思思賣了它袋袋平安。不過這篇文章提醒我不要太短視。

金融雲端:我仲信蘋果

2012年03月19日

乘着新 iPad的推出,加上 iPhone4S的熱賣,蘋果股價最近創出 600美元新高,市值趨近 5600億美元,拋離埃克森美孚的 4000億、 IBM的 2400億,甚至比所有美國零售股加起來都要大。《金融中心》版於去年 8月開張未幾,我已經為文唱好蘋果,指蘋果雖然大,但可以更大,當時蘋果股價 300多美元,想不到這半年升勢似火箭。今次有更多人用「大數定律」、「增長的極限」,甚至是「 5000億的咒詛」來試圖說服我,蘋果已變成大牛龜,我偏唔信邪,繼續 Buy。

個餅越造越大 未虞減速

蘋果過去三個月已升 55%, 2月底才破 500美元,不足一個月又闖 600美元,升得這樣急,短期難免回吐唞唞,但不代表無以為繼。

我知道,我知道,對於一隻去年銷售額 1280億美元的公司,要持續逾四成的增長率,已經代表今年要多做 500億美元生意,講就容易。有分析員甚至講︰「再繼續這樣的增長,遲早地球上每個男人、女人、兒童、畜生及石頭都要買一部 iPhone。」市場顯然認同,蘋果的大已構成問題,所以蘋果越大,市盈率就越縮,由 2007年的 25倍,變成現時的 13倍。
蘋果減速,確實是遲早問題,但我仍認為時辰未到,因為我還見到蘋果的市場不斷在變,在擴大。蘋果在主宰網上音樂、智能電話、平板電腦之外,仍在不斷開拓疆土,早前推出的應用程式 iBooks 2,便着眼於教科書市場,而 iPhone 4S的強勁鏡頭,也嚴重侵蝕了儍瓜機市場,一月份四大日本相機生產商的付運量較對上一年便急跌一成, Sony的數碼相機銷售,更加是 2009年以來最差。
另一個新疆界則是企業應用市場,通用電器及國防公司 Halliburton最近均容許員工,在工作時使用 Mac機與 iPhone,以代替 PC及黑莓手機。 iPhone與 iPad的商用發展潛力,仍然是未開發的新大陸。

蘋果正不斷重新定義市場的疆界,在過程中打造不同的平台,夥拍不同產業來提供內容及應用。最初蘋果開拓的智能手機市場,可能只是電子手賬及傳統手機市場的結合,但未來卻可能包攬數碼相機、手提攝錄機、多媒體娛樂、秘書服務、社交網絡、電子錢包等等市場。劃分的市場越大,蘋果可以分到的餅也越多。

鋪路派息 基金肯定搶貨

再者,蘋果還遠未達到人人一部 iPhone的境地,蘋果現時在美國的智能電話市場份額是 30%,但在全球市場中,每 100部智能手機只有 19部是 iPhone。新興市場中介乎 25至 34歲的智能電話一族,人口比西歐及北美多 14倍,蘋果擁有的絕非單單中國故事,也是巴西與俄羅斯的故事。
蘋果的減速不但未見兆頭,我說蘋果隨時還有重估的可能。蘋果現時的千億美元現金,折合近每股 105美元,預計還會一路飆升。行政總裁 Tim Cook今年情人節時露口風,為派股息鋪路:「我會是第一個承認,我們的現金已超過每日營運所需……因此我們正積極地檢討,我只要求一點耐性,讓我們可以謹慎從事,為股東作最佳決定。」

其實蘋果的增長,從來不是靠大投資或大收購而來,即使決定首度派息,與增長見頂並無關係,反而之前一大批因為蘋果不派息而不可沾手的保守型基金,可以解禁吸納。事實上,目前已有不少基金如中小型股基金、高息股基金與退休基金等玩擦邊球,明知不可為而為之,側側膊持有蘋果的股份,儘管蘋果既不派息,亦非細價股。

即使如此,蘋果貴為全球最大市值股份,但在很多美股基金的投資組合中,持倉往往偏低,連十大持倉股票都不入。一旦派息,更多基金可以名正言順吸納,估值可望重估。瑞信曾估計,若蘋果派息,市盈率有機見 15倍。

業績佳現金多 未見泡沫

其實,我不信邪的最重要原因,是蘋果依然不貴。如上面所講,蘋果這幾年的股價升值,是在市盈率不斷下跌中出現的,意味蘋果的股價,主要是靠盈利的急增來支持。一家手持過千億美元現金的無負債公司,業績對辦,市盈率與大市相若,恕我鼻塞,我實在聞不到一點泡沫或炒燶的味道。

丘亦生

(http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/template/apple/art_main.php?iss_id=20120319&sec_id=15307&subsec_id=15320&art_id=16168373&cat_id=15523460&coln_id=15523464)

灰絕人寰

20 Tuesday Mar 2012

Posted by Platoooooo in March 2012

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0027.HK, 0623.HK, 銀河娛樂, 中視金橋

灰色事件一:

星期四中午銀河娛樂 (0027.HK) 公佈業績。我見之前幾隻濠賭股好似金沙 (1928.HK)、永利 (1128.HK)  都有靚靚業績,27 個價位又在 $19 高位徘徊,如果向上穿的話應該都可以爆一段,所以早上買了個 call。

業績公佈,多賺2.3倍但下午股價反而向下走,心想大概因為它不派息吧 (金沙跟永利都慷慨派息)。心諗既然業績炒不到,基於風險管理,就蝕住賣了。

誰不知第二日市場話銀河的業績好,帶動全部濠賭股一齊 gap up 高開。隻27號其實星期四已經最後5分鐘收復大部份失地,星期五開市價再 gap up 8%,雙日轉向 12%!!!望住個 screen 我除了「啤」~~~ 一聲外,又可以做乜?

灰色事件二:

之前讀各財經報紙雜誌,間唔中都有講起中視金橋 (0623.HK),我都有d興趣。可以跟央視合作做廣告,肯定是有一定的關係,再加上派息好,margin of safety 又高一點。

上星期初大市急跌了1000點時,我見它星期三 (7號) 也回調到 $3 樓下, 星期四 (8號) 就定了 $2.95 的限價買盤,點知當日去到 $2.96 它就回升了!但由於上星期我一直都是偏淡等恆指跌落 20000 點,所以星期四我買不到這隻 623 就心想不用心急,等下先啦。

但它三爬兩撥幾日之間它已經回升到 $3.3 水平,星期五早上我知道它中午公佈業績,但見它幾日內已經反彈成 10%,唔追啦…

結果呢?它業績果然不錯,又果然派了高息,但「可惜的是」(對我來說) 它派的不止是高息,而是超高息!!$3.3 的股價派 $0.212 的股息,足足6厘有多!所以下午它頭也不回就升了20%,這次我不再「啤」~~~ 了… 我直情想一拳打爆個 mon!!

兩件灰色事件中我不是眼紅這些大升的股票,日日都有不知名的喪升股票啦!但這兩隻是叉燒餵到埋口都食唔到,真是覺得非常沮喪… 實在太揼春了!

美股一路向北?

19 Monday Mar 2012

Posted by Platoooooo in March 2012

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我又偷懶了!今日又一次「拾人牙慧」,quote Yahoo! Finance 的一篇 article。除了看 VIX 外,它亦提醒我剛過去的星期五是美國3個月一度的「四期結算」大日子。天下烏鴉一樣黑,會不會美國大戶又是在托高結算呢?

VIX Near 5-Year Low – Will This Jinx the Stock Rally?

The VIX (Chicago Options: ^VIX) or fear gauge is at the lowest level since July 2007. Not only are investors complacent about any possible risk, but the financial media is too complacent to write about investors lack of fear.

Lack of publicity of a bearish indictor usually increases the potency of its message. Does this mean the stock rally is about over?

There are no absolutes at investing, but low VIX readings have proven to be a good sell signal. Since July 2007 the VIX dropped below 15 only twice – in April 2011 and a few days ago (Tuesday’s low was 13.99, the April low was 14.30).

We know that last April’s VIX low led to a swift 20% across the board decline, but to get a larger sample size, let’s relax the parameter to VIX readings below or close to 15. This gives us a few more hits. The chart below plots the S&P 500 against the VIX.

The horizontal red line is drawn at the 15 level while the red arrows mark the corresponding S&P level. It doesn’t take a Ph. D. in statistics to decipher the implications of a sub-15 VIX reading.

                  

Versatile VIX

In addition to its correlation to stocks, the VIX viewed in tandem with the upper or lower Bollinger Band provides actual buy/sell signals (a buy signal for the VIX translates into a sell signal for stocks).

A close below the lower Bollinger Band followed by a close above triggers a VIX buy signal (sell signal for stocks).

The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter alerted subscribers of a stock sell signal on January 12, 2010, April 13, 2010 and April 25, 2011. As illustrated by the chart, each such sell signal was followed by a decline ranging from 10 – 30% in the major indexes a la Dow Jones (), S&P (), Nasdaq () and Russell 2000 (Chicago Options: ^RUT).

A buy signal for stocks was triggered on October 4, 2011, which was two days after the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter issued a strong buy-signal and described the ideal scenario for a major market bottom as follows: ‘The ideal market bottom would see the S&P dip below 1,088 intraday followed by a strong recovery and a close above 1,088.’

Short-term Outlook

As pointed out by Sunday’s ETF Profit Strategy forecast for the week ahead, seasonal strength before triple witching tends to provide a boost for prices. Once triple witching is over, the seasonal strength gives way to end of quarter rebalancing volatility, which more often than not means lower prices.

This doesn’t mean stocks can’t go any higher, but just as a sore throat often leads to a cold, an ultra-low VIX reading can easily lead to a pronounced sell off.

In addition to the market’s VIX trouble, Apple seems to be carving out a rare topping pattern seen in gold (NYSEArca: GLD – News) and silver (NYSEArca: SLV – News) last year. Apple accounts for 18.44% of the Nasdaq-100, the index that has led the market and is the biggest component of the S&P 500. If Apple catches a cold, the market will get the flu (and perhaps pneumonia).

It’s too early for conservative investors to trade based on any of that information (aside from scaling down long positions), but there’s strong evidence that any weakness that pulls stocks below important support will no doubt awaken sellers.

The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter analyzes Apple’s topping patterns and what it will take to confirm that the pattern is playing out. It also provides the must hold support that – once broken – would result in heavy selling and much lower prices.

(http://finance.yahoo.com/news/vix-near-5-low-jinx-163201735.html)

This is not why I left Rabbit

16 Friday Mar 2012

Posted by Platoooooo in March 2012

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Why I am leaving Goldman Sachs

昨日讀了 Greg Smith “Why I am leaving Goldman Sachs” (http://wp.me/p1Pacp-cK) 的朋友,你會不會質疑我的誠信 too?!

所有做生意的人都應該明白 Mr Smith 所講 ” If clients don’t trust you they will eventually stop doing business with you. It doesn’t matter how smart you are.” 的道理。我跟我的 teammate 都明白這硬道理。我不能擔保我們當年賣的 product 全部都幫客人賺了錢,但我可以保證我們整個團隊都是憑良心去賣這些 product 的!

衍生工具的用途主要有二:對沖和刀仔鋸大樹。對沖的產品我們少賣,因為 market need 不多,我夾硬推都不代表有人會買,反而從歐洲同事口中知道他們的客人對這類型的 product 有興趣得多了。香港人都是喜歡膽搏膽,一蚊搏三蚊多d。

我很慶幸一班 senior 的老闆們都是有品有 heart 的人,一同設計產品時,「謀取暴利」從來都不是我們的出發點;我們不會為 arb 爆 client 而高興,但我們會為想到一些買家值搏率高、回報高,而我們又可以 hedge 到我們的 risk 、賺到錢的 win-win product 而興奮。常常看到報紙話如果你買了 ibank 的產品就等於跟我們對賭,你輸錢時我們大賺。事實上,一個正正常常的 product,你贏錢時我們不應該輸;你輸錢時我們未必輸好多,但肯定不一定贏。你估銀行賣你 product 就好似係賭場做莊賭大細呀 — 你贏莊家輸,你輸莊家贏?這麼簡單的話,ibank 的人工花紅就應該跟澳門的荷官們睇齊;當年金融海嘯散戶們血流成河時,ibank 們就應該是賺到盤滿砵滿而不是執笠!!

“Why I Am Leaving Goldman Sachs”

15 Thursday Mar 2012

Posted by Platoooooo in March 2012

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Greg Smith, Why I am leaving Goldman Sachs

(下面 bold 了的字句是小弟的傑作,不是來自原文)

Why I Am Leaving Goldman Sachs

By GREG SMITH
Published: March 14, 2012

TODAY is my last day at Goldman Sachs. After almost 12 years at the firm — first as a summer intern while at Stanford, then in New York for 10 years, and now in London — I believe I have worked here long enough to understand the trajectory of its culture, its people and its identity. And I can honestly say that the environment now is as toxic and destructive as I have ever seen it.

To put the problem in the simplest terms, the interests of the client continue to be sidelined in the way the firm operates and thinks about making money. Goldman Sachs is one of the world’s largest and most important investment banks and it is too integral to global finance to continue to act this way. The firm has veered so far from the place I joined right out of college that I can no longer in good conscience say that I identify with what it stands for.

It might sound surprising to a skeptical public, but culture was always a vital part of Goldman Sachs’s success. It revolved around teamwork, integrity, a spirit of humility, and always doing right by our clients. The culture was the secret sauce that made this place great and allowed us to earn our clients’ trust for 143 years. It wasn’t just about making money; this alone will not sustain a firm for so long. It had something to do with pride and belief in the organization. I am sad to say that I look around today and see virtually no trace of the culture that made me love working for this firm for many years. I no longer have the pride, or the belief.

But this was not always the case. For more than a decade I recruited and mentored candidates through our grueling interview process. I was selected as one of 10 people (out of a firm of more than 30,000) to appear on our recruiting video, which is played on every college campus we visit around the world. In 2006 I managed the summer intern program in sales and trading in New York for the 80 college students who made the cut, out of the thousands who applied.

I knew it was time to leave when I realized I could no longer look students in the eye and tell them what a great place this was to work.

When the history books are written about Goldman Sachs, they may reflect that the current chief executive officer, Lloyd C. Blankfein, and the president, Gary D. Cohn, lost hold of the firm’s culture on their watch. I truly believe that this decline in the firm’s moral fiber represents the single most serious threat to its long-run survival.

Over the course of my career I have had the privilege of advising two of the largest hedge funds on the planet, five of the largest asset managers in the United States, and three of the most prominent sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East and Asia. My clients have a total asset base of more than a trillion dollars. I have always taken a lot of pride in advising my clients to do what I believe is right for them, even if it means less money for the firm. This view is becoming increasingly unpopular at Goldman Sachs. Another sign that it was time to leave.

How did we get here? The firm changed the way it thought about leadership. Leadership used to be about ideas, setting an example and doing the right thing. Today, if you make enough money for the firm (and are not currently an ax murderer) you will be promoted into a position of influence.

What are three quick ways to become a leader? a) Execute on the firm’s “axes,” which is Goldman-speak for persuading your clients to invest in the stocks or other products that we are trying to get rid of because they are not seen as having a lot of potential profit. b) “Hunt Elephants.” In English: get your clients — some of whom are sophisticated, and some of whom aren’t — to trade whatever will bring the biggest profit to Goldman. Call me old-fashioned, but I don’t like selling my clients a product that is wrong for them. c) Find yourself sitting in a seat where your job is to trade any illiquid, opaque product with a three-letter acronym.

Today, many of these leaders display a Goldman Sachs culture quotient of exactly zero percent. I attend derivatives sales meetings where not one single minute is spent asking questions about how we can help clients. It’s purely about how we can make the most possible money off of them. If you were an alien from Mars and sat in on one of these meetings, you would believe that a client’s success or progress was not part of the thought process at all.

It makes me ill how callously people talk about ripping their clients off. Over the last 12 months I have seen five different managing directors refer to their own clients as “muppets,” sometimes over internal e-mail. Even after the S.E.C., Fabulous Fab, Abacus, God’s work, Carl Levin, Vampire Squids? No humility? I mean, come on. Integrity? It is eroding. I don’t know of any illegal behavior, but will people push the envelope and pitch lucrative and complicated products to clients even if they are not the simplest investments or the ones most directly aligned with the client’s goals? Absolutely. Every day, in fact.

It astounds me how little senior management gets a basic truth: If clients don’t trust you they will eventually stop doing business with you. It doesn’t matter how smart you are.

These days, the most common question I get from junior analysts about derivatives is, “How much money did we make off the client?” It bothers me every time I hear it, because it is a clear reflection of what they are observing from their leaders about the way they should behave. Now project 10 years into the future: You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that the junior analyst sitting quietly in the corner of the room hearing about “muppets,” “ripping eyeballs out” and “getting paid” doesn’t exactly turn into a model citizen.

When I was a first-year analyst I didn’t know where the bathroom was, or how to tie my shoelaces. I was taught to be concerned with learning the ropes, finding out what a derivative was, understanding finance, getting to know our clients and what motivated them, learning how they defined success and what we could do to help them get there.

My proudest moments in life — getting a full scholarship to go from South Africa to Stanford University, being selected as a Rhodes Scholar national finalist, winning a bronze medal for table tennis at the Maccabiah Games in Israel, known as the Jewish Olympics — have all come through hard work, with no shortcuts. Goldman Sachs today has become too much about shortcuts and not enough about achievement. It just doesn’t feel right to me anymore.

I hope this can be a wake-up call to the board of directors. Make the client the focal point of your business again. Without clients you will not make money. In fact, you will not exist. Weed out the morally bankrupt people, no matter how much money they make for the firm. And get the culture right again, so people want to work here for the right reasons. People who care only about making money will not sustain this firm — or the trust of its clients — for very much longer.

(http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/14/opinion/why-i-am-leaving-goldman-sachs.html)

險

15 Thursday Mar 2012

Posted by Platoooooo in March 2012

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這幾天雖然大市日日升,但自己看得偏淡。一來、941 和 13 的雙天「藍燈籠」保至尊;二來、雖然希債搞掂,但歐元仍沉淪在 1.30xx 水平;三來、代表風險資產的黃金和澳元沒有跟隨股票上升。以對沖手上股票為目的,我在這星期初買了隻 21700 點打靶的熊仔。

誰不知昨晚美股大升 200 多點,我起身見到時心已經涼了半截。雖然買熊仔時早有全輸的準備,但望著我的小小熊就這樣被打靶了始終心有難過。

開市了…… 只升了 200 多點到 215xx,仲有價講!上午曾經上過 21638,距離我 21700 的打靶價只有 62 點!!但我見開市狀況比我想像中弱,又整天不在家,心想「算啦,隻熊仔由得佢聽天由命啦!」點知點知下午再看個市時升幅已經大大收窄,最後更倒跌收市!我立即看看我那隻大難不死的熊仔,嘩!收市價足足比最低位高出3倍!!難怪散戶們咁喜歡炒牛熊証啦!

今日到了阻力位大成交大陰燭單日轉向,似乎我這兩天不用再位為我的小小熊擔憂了!

濠賭一鋪

13 Tuesday Mar 2012

Posted by Platoooooo in March 2012

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Tags

0027.HK, 1928.HK, 金沙城中心, 金沙中國, 銀河娛樂, 濠賭股

今日濠賭股齊齊彈上,真是個每個月都要炒一劑的神話!究竟澳門這個比香港更彈元的地方,賭客數量還可以增加多少?或許,這就解釋了為什麼我再也見不到那些$100的賭枱了。

眾多賭股中,我的至愛是金沙中國 (1928.HK),它是唯一一間今年在澳門有新場開幕。今日的金沙就有如去年的銀河娛樂 (0027.HK),大家翻開銀河去年的股價圖就明白為何我咁有憧憬。還有,根據我一年最多兩次親身到澳門的觀察,次次都在威尼斯人見到一車又一車的大陸人入內送錢,金沙的收入又哪裡會少!

 

全城效應全城唱

12 Monday Mar 2012

Posted by Platoooooo in March 2012

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

0941.HK, 藍燈籠, 中國移動

全城效應 全城唱 全城高溫作出呼應
一同迴響 人人也在和唱 感覺愈高興 高溫效應

全城效應,全城唱好941!

中移動 (0941.HK) 上星期三收市價還只是 $79.70,「砰砰砰」三聲星期五已經升到 $84.20,今再升差不多4%收 $87.45,前後足足升了9%有多!它一手貢獻了星期五跟今天恆指共130多點的升幅,若不是多得它恆指今天還應該只是剛剛在 21000 點樓下!

有人話 941 如此大升時是藍燈籠表現 — 大市短線升到差不多尾聲,但更多人立即唱好,目標看 $90 ,甚至 $100!我看得沒有這麼表面,941 大升不是問題,問題是星期五恆指的升勢只是靠 941,其他成份股全部牛皮偏淡。如果 941 大升之時全城齊升,大市個氣勢就當然是 GO GO GO~~~ 但星期五的狀況似是托住 941 沽貨多d。我就無大家咁興奮啦!

還有,941 今個星期四放榜,業績上它每個月公佈用戶數據,透明度超高無乜好炒,大家搏炒的是會否派超高息或者 CEO 先生會不會出口術唱好前景 (尤其是 4G)。前者可能性應該很低,後者有點一廂情願,況且CEO 先生一句值不值升完 4% 再升 4%?你諗你!

講股仔

09 Friday Mar 2012

Posted by Platoooooo in March 2012

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

0302.HK, 0438.HK, 0585.HK, 0826.HK, 天工國際, 彩虹電子, 意馬國際, 永亨銀行

今日無乜 topic 想講,我終於明白到d財演除了要幫忙造勢推股票外,可能就是當個市悶悶地無甚好講時,就要介紹下股票湊夠字數交貨。

首先講返隻永亨 (0302.HK),我是真的星期三收市前買了,搏它宣佈派高息刺激股價,可惜夢想落空!幸好它的業績都幾靚仔,中午出業績後都有抽上,我少少地賺了$2,都好過無!

這個星期還見到3隻有睇頭的股票。頭兩隻天工 (0826.HK) 和彩虹電子 (0438.HK) 都是做了個大圓底並已破頂,成交亦相當配合,似有勢再上。其中天工更是做了海嘯後新高,應該已進入無阻力區!

第3隻意馬 (0585.HK) 就 risky d,擺明是莊家股,不過隻股仔已經跌到3底支持,值搏率都應該 ok。小小注、set 好止蝕、再有心理準備揸一段時間等莊家炒上,回報可以幾和味!

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