How to Trade in Stocks

How to Trade in Stocks?

小弟是圖表派的die hard 粉絲。常常聽到有些人會批評圖表派「兒戲」，無價值投資派的分析來得solid。我從來不質疑價值投資，所以我亦不認為別人應該質疑我們這些圖表派。要質疑的，就只是輸錢那一派！

如果你認為圖表派傻得以為「個圖以前點走今日就會依樣葫蘆走多次」，那你就真的是本末倒置了。圖表是果，人性才是因。就是因為人性是永遠不變，所以圖表走勢才不斷地重覆再重覆。舉個例，雖然大家經歷了2008的金融海嘯，但看見上個月的大跌市，是不是都是嚇得心驚膽跳，真的有一股衝動瞌埋眼賣晒d股票算數？又或者之後見那些濠賭股、內銀股「把把聲」反彈，又立刻反過來驚現在不買會不會追不到貨？ 所以股市要你滅亡前永遠都可以先令你癲狂；想撈底的撈到的永遠都不是底；股票市場中輸錢的人永遠都比贏錢的多。

這些日子讀了Jesse Livermore的How To Trade in Stocks，獲益良多。雖然都是一些曾幾何時已聽過的道理，但從這樣一個winner中的winner口中說出來，特別有說服力。我未必有JL聰明，但如果可以做到他所講的話，相信要在market當中站在winner那一面絕對無問題！

以下是我從書中節錄的一些規條。記住，這些是一個20世紀初，winner中的winner所講的，不是我這個股市中的一條魚毛講的。我只是bold了小弟特別引以為戒的幾條規條。

Cut your losses quickly
Be sure to confirm your judgment before you take your full position
Let your profits ride if there is no good reason to close out the position
Keep the number of stocks you follow limited in order to focus
New all time highs are possible signals of valid break outs
Cheap stocks often appear to be bargains after a large drop. They often continue to fall, or have little potential to rise in price. Leave them alone!
Be sure you have a good clear reason to enter a trade and be sure you have good clear reasons to exit your position. It is the big swing that makes the big money for you
Stocks are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling short
When the market goes sideways and you are confused, take a vacation
Trade the leading stocks in the leading groups. Buy the strongest market leader in an industry group
Buy small positions, probe first, to test your judgment before you commit to a large position. Do not establish your full position all at one time – use probes to confirm your judgment and timing
ESTABLISH STOPS!…… And you must obey your rules! Never sustain a loss of more than ten percent of your invested capital
Never meet a margin call and never average down in buying
Emotional control is the most essential factor in playing the market
Don’t anticipate! Wait until the market gives you the clues, the signals, the hints, before you move
Remove hope from your trading lexicon. Hoping a stock will do something is the true form of gambling
ALL TIPS ARE DANGEROUS – TAKE NO TIPS!
Play a lone hand, Make your decisions about your own money by yourself
Never lose control of your emotions when the market moves against you
Never become an “involuntary investor” by holding a declining stock