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Plato @ Investment

~ Trying to make money out of all kinds of market condition

Plato @ Investment

Daily Archives: September 23, 2011

搏反彈的藝術

23 Friday Sep 2011

Posted by Platoooooo in September 2011

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在這個大風大雨的日子,很多人都喜歡短線搏反彈,因為大家總希望個市會向上升。

講明「搏反彈」,即是睇法偏淡,如果唔係就叫「趁低吸納」啦!所以首要條件就是個市跌得夠殘,因為大方向是向下,所以搏反彈時間唔啱可能會被挾死。總之小心為上,有錯過無買錯。

選股方面,要揀強勢股,雖然升勢未必及弱股的超級反彈力,但勝在夠穩陣及反彈機會率最高。8月時的選擇是當時得令的水泥股、濠賭股等,但時至今日你再攞幅圖來睇,已經走晒樣,一頂低於一頂,好唔對路。老實講,我暫時都搵唔到心水candidate,近來強勢的都是電訊股,等咁多日終於跟個市跌啦!

除了買正股外,可以考慮用warrant。原因有三:
1) warrant 有 leverage effect,可以用少d資金。
2) warrant 用少咗資金,即使輸晒都細銀碼d,萬一睇錯方向,有自動幫你止蝕的作用。例如你買一隻8x leverage 的 warrant,用的是12.5%的資金,跌到0都只是-12.5%。
3) 搏反彈只是短線行為,所以不大怕輸時間值,只怕volatility跌。

最後,搏反彈不要貪心,到心水價就應該take profit;相反睇錯就記得嚴守止蝕,切忌短炒變長揸,否則壓死晒d錢,到market確認轉勢時就真係有心無力了。

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